CCI Conservation Seminar - Prof. Mark Urban, University of Connecticut
Improving the forecast for biodiversity in the global heat age
Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and its many contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. As global temperatures rise, a synthesis of existing projection models predicts that as many as one in six species could become endangered. Yet, current models often do not incorporate the fundamental biological mechanisms that could mediate these risks. Therefore, we are ill-prepared to pinpoint when, where, and how to prevent the largest extinction event in human history. Although 20 years behind in predicting climate change effects on biodiversity, I believe that ecologists can rapidly increase our ability to make accurate forecasts in the coming years if we start now. Toward this end, I outline a plan to build a universal biodiversity forecasting platform, patterned after the development of general circulation models in climate science. This effort will require international coordination and funding, but not more than similarly bold efforts in climate science, astronomy, and physics. We need to make rapid progress on projecting biodiversity because, in the end, we cannot protect what we cannot predict.
Mark C. Urban is an international award-winning scientist, associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, and global expert on climate change impacts on nature. He is the Director of the Center of Biological Risk, which seeks to improve the capacity to assess, manage, and communicate biological risks of global change through research, teaching, and community outreach. The Center focuses on risks that affect, originate from, or are mediated by biological systems. These risks are commonly neglected in contemporary risk analyses and are often more complicated than physical threats, yet can have just as damaging consequences.
Wednesday, 3rd May 2023 - 16:00 to 17:00
Main Seminar Room, David Attenborough Building
Drinks will follow in the Common Room.
Online participants need to register for a Zoom link using the Eventbrite link below:
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/conservation-seminar-prof-mark-urban-3rd-...
In person attendees do not need to register - just turn up.
