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Updated: 1 hour 44 min ago

Fri 04 Apr 13:00: Deep convection and ocean overturning

Mon, 31/03/2025 - 09:56
Deep convection and ocean overturning

The ocean’s circulation plays a pivotal role in Earth’s climate system, with its changes during climate transitions being of critical importance. This study, grounded in the principle of dynamical similarity, employs Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) in an idealized setup to dissect the complexities of ocean circulation, with a particular focus on the North Atlantic and the role of buoyancy and wind in shaping the hydrological cycle.

We begin with a simple system—a non-rotating ocean forced by a single scalar—then gradually introduce complexity by adding constant/variable rotation, wind forcing, and a second scalar. Surprisingly, our results show the spontaneous formation of gyres and a western boundary current, along with full-depth overturning, even without the introduction of wind. Wind forcing further localizes upwelling near the western boundary current and primarily strengthens the gyres while having less influence on overturning circulation. With the introduction of a second scalar (salinity), our results become more representative of the real ocean, reproducing key features such as mode water formation, mid-latitude deeper thermocline structures, and polar haloclines, both with and without wind forcing. Our DNS framework is well-suited for resolving convection processes, including diffusive convection near the poles and salt fingering in mid-latitudes, both of which are crucial for establishing mixed layers and pycnoclines in these regions.

A key highlight of our study is capturing ocean circulation across multiple scales—from basin-scale overturning and gyres to mesoscale eddies, submesoscale dynamics, and millimeter-scale convection. These multiscale interactions regulate heat, salt, and tracer transport. Our highresolution approach explicitly resolves the interplay between large-scale circulation and small-scale turbulent mixing, offering deeper insights into ocean stratification, ventilation, and buoyancy-driven flows, providing critical insights for forecasting the evolving dynamics of the North Atlantic.

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Wed 18 Jun 14:00: Title to be confirmed

Fri, 28/03/2025 - 09:39
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Abstract not available

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Wed 07 May 14:00: Title to be confirmed

Fri, 28/03/2025 - 09:38
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Abstract not available

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Wed 04 Jun 14:00: Title to be confirmed

Fri, 28/03/2025 - 09:38
Title to be confirmed

Abstract not available

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Wed 23 Apr 14:00: Ocean dynamics in the Ross Ice Shelf cavity from in situ observations

Thu, 27/03/2025 - 09:29
Ocean dynamics in the Ross Ice Shelf cavity from in situ observations

The future response of ice shelves to climate through ocean warming is a key unknown for climate projections, especially global sea level rise. The Ross Ice Shelf ocean cavity is one of the least observed regions in the ocean, with its broad circulation patterns primarily inferred from remotely sensed estimates of tides, bathymetry, and melt rates. I aim to advance our understanding of the ocean cavity under the Ross Ice Shelf – the southern-most and largest-by area of all Earth’s ice shelves. To achieve this, I analyzed a multi-year hydrographic moored timeseries from the central Ross Ice Shelf cavity (80◦39.497′S, 174◦27.678′E). These data help address three key processes: (i) the general circulation; (ii) the appearance and impact of baroclinic eddy events; and (iii) tidal modulation of the ice-ocean boundary layer structure and the implications for ice melting. In terms of circulation and the inter-annual changes, stronger melting/refreezing occurred between late September 2019 to late December 2019, which is linked to the inter-annual sea ice production in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya. Notably, cold-water interleaving in the mid-water column exhibits distinct seasonality. An analysis of baroclinic eddies identifies coherent structures that are around 22 km in diameter with a velocity scale of between 0.8 and 1.8 cm/s. The thermohaline structure of the eddies suggests that they have the potential to entrain High Salinity Shelf Water from the benthic water column to the mid-water column. On the question of tidal modulation of the ice shelf-ocean interaction, the results suggest that tides modulate the melt rate by altering the boundary layer structure over a spring-neap cycle. These new findings demonstrate the rich variability within the Ross Ice Shelf ocean cavity, ranging from large interannual-seasonal scales, through to multi-week eddy scales and then down to tidal and mixing timescales.

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Wed 26 Mar 15:30: A Bayesian Neural Network approach to study dissolved oxygen in Southern Ocean water masses

Wed, 19/03/2025 - 15:58
A Bayesian Neural Network approach to study dissolved oxygen in Southern Ocean water masses

Oxygen plays a critical role in the health of marine ecosystems. As oceanic O2 concentration decreases to hypoxic levels, marine organisms’ habitability decreases rapidly. However, identifying the physical patterns driving this reduction in dissolved oxygen remains challenging. This study employs a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) to analyze the uncertainty in dissolved oxygen forecasts. The method’s significance lies in its ability to assess oxygen forecasts’ uncertainty with evolving physical dynamics. The BNN model outperforms traditional linear regression and persistence methods, particularly under changing climate conditions. Our approach leverages three Explainable AI (XAI) techniques—Integrated Gradients, Gradient SHAP , and DeepLIFT—to provide meaningful interpretations of 2- and 8-year forecasts. The XAI analysis reveals that buoyancy frequency and eddy kinetic energy is a critical predictor for short-term forecasts across the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), masses. While the LCDW variability emphasizes also a role played by advection processes, such as salinity, over short and long timescales.

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Sat 19 Apr 11:00: NatHistFest: 106th Conversazione Free Exhibition on the Wonders of the Natural World

Fri, 14/03/2025 - 11:45
NatHistFest: 106th Conversazione

Cambridge’s oldest celebration of citizen science.

The event, showcasing the environment and wildlife of Cambridgeshire and further afield, will be hosted in the David Attenborough Building, adjacent to the Zoology Museum.

We invite anyone (CNHS member or not) to consider exhibiting. Exhibits might include specimens (living or dead) – things people can handle always seem to be popular – or displays about any aspect of local natural history. Or perhaps you are member of a local group which might like to have an exhibit about its activities? Past programmes, available on our website, give an idea of the wide variety of exhibits, and there is also a history of the Conversazione, written in 1989 or the 70th event. For information or to book exhibition space please email exhibition@cnhs.org.uk, or contact the Conversazione organisers via https://www.cnhs.org.uk/

Free Exhibition on the Wonders of the Natural World

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Thu 20 Mar 18:45: Natural Materials for Musical Instruments Please note the start time, being after the AGM, is approximate.

Thu, 13/03/2025 - 14:56
Natural Materials for Musical Instruments

Immediately following the CNHS AGM , Jim Woodhouse will give a Presidential Address on the various uses of natural materials in the making of traditional musical instruments.

The talk will focus mostly on wood: why instrument makers prefer certain particular types of wood, what it is in the cellular structure that makes these timbers special, and what scope there may be to use alternative materials in the light of climate pressure and CITES restrictions.

Please note the start time, being after the AGM, is approximate.

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Fri 04 Apr 13:00: Title to be confirmed

Wed, 12/03/2025 - 15:22
Title to be confirmed

Abstract not available

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Wed 12 Mar 14:00: Spatio-temporal Melt and Basal Channel Evolution on Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf from CryoSat-2

Wed, 05/03/2025 - 10:58
Spatio-temporal Melt and Basal Channel Evolution on Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf from CryoSat-2

Ice shelves buttress the grounded ice sheet, restraining its flow into the ocean. Mass loss from these ice shelves occurs primarily through ocean-induced basal melting, with the highest melt rates occurring in regions that host basal channels – elongated, kilometre-wide zones of relatively thin ice. While some models suggest that basal channels could mitigate overall ice shelf melt rates, channels have also been linked to basal and surface crevassing, leaving their cumulative impact on ice-shelf stability uncertain. Due to their relatively small spatial scale and the limitations of previous satellite datasets, our understanding of how channelised melting evolves over time remains limited. In this study, we present a novel approach that uses CryoSat-2 radar altimetry data to calculate ice shelf basal melt rates, demonstrated here as a case study over Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf. Our method generates monthly Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and melt maps with a 250 m spatial resolution. The data show that near the grounding line, basal melting preferentially melts a channel’s western flank 50% more than its eastern flank. Additionally, we find that the main channelised geometries on PIG are inherited upstream of the grounding line and play a role in forming ice shelf pinning points. These observations highlight the importance of channels under ice shelves, emphasising the need to investigate them further and consider their impacts on observations and models that do not resolve them.

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Wed 19 Mar 14:00: Tipping points of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves: how worried should we be?

Wed, 26/02/2025 - 09:05
Tipping points of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves: how worried should we be?

Ocean models consistently project that with sufficient climate change forcing, the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf cavities could abruptly transition from a cold state to a warm state. Crossing these tipping points would have profound consequences for basal melt rates, buttressing of ice streams, and ultimately sea level rise. Here we analyse over 14,000 years of “overshoot” simulations with the UK Earth System Model, which includes a fully coupled Antarctic Ice Sheet. As the climate warms, stabilises at different temperatures, and cools again, we simulate many examples of the cavities tipping and recovering. We find that global warming thresholds of around 3.5°C and 5°C tip the Ross and Filchner-Ronne respectively. We also find evidence of hysteresis: the climate must cool back down beyond the tipping thresholds in order for each cavity to return to its original cold state. Even if the oceanography recovers, the ice sheet does not: sea level contribution from each catchment takes centuries even to stabilise, and the ice does not begin to regrow on this timescale. Therefore, if the Ross or Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves cross tipping points, the resulting sea level rise will be effectively irreversible.

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Wed 26 Feb 15:30: The Impacts of Freshwater Transport on the Weddell Gyre Carbon Budget

Wed, 26/02/2025 - 09:00
The Impacts of Freshwater Transport on the Weddell Gyre Carbon Budget

The Weddell Gyre mediates carbon exchange between the abyssal ocean and atmosphere, which is critical to global climate. This region also features large and highly variable freshwater fluxes due to seasonal sea ice, net precipitation, and glacial melt; however, the impact of these freshwater fluxes on the regional carbon cycle has not been fully explored. Using a novel budget analysis of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) mass in the Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate and revisiting hydrographic analysis from the ANDREX cruises, we highlight two freshwater-driven transports. Where freshwater with minimal DIC enters the ocean, it displaces DIC -rich seawater outwards, driving a lateral transport of 75±5 Tg DIC /year. Additionally, sea ice export requires a compensating import of seawater, which carries 48±11 Tg DIC /year into the gyre. Though often overlooked, these freshwater displacement effects are of leading order in the Weddell Gyre carbon budget in the state estimate and in regrouped box-inversion estimates. Implications for evaluating basin-scale carbon transports are considered. [Time permitting, I’ll also share some results on the role of heat addition in driving circulation change and warming patterns in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean.]

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